2010 tech predictions (Updated)

23 December 2009 - Filed under Life Outside Work

It’s time for 2010 tech predictions. Although there is no shortage of “authoritative” predictions for the new year such as ones published by Newsweek, I’d like to add some “lighthearted” ones of my own like I did last time. But before I get to the new ones for 2010, let me briefly reflect on how my 2009 predictions went.

• [2009-1] “Blu-ray succumbs to a decade-old technology called DVD”: Largely true, I think. The Blu-ray shelves at local JB Hi-Fi stores don’t look any bigger than they did a year ago. DVD, ripped DVD playable on VLC and portable devices, and streamed media will continue to eat into the yet-to-be-mainstream Blu-ray market share.
• [2009-2] “Affordable mobile broadband renders many government-led infrastructure initiatives irrelevant, including Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN)”: Largely true. At least the original single-supplier A$4.7B NBN plan did not take off. ICT infrastructure upgrades and expansions seem to be led by individual telcos and not governments.
• [2009-3] “Browser war: Firefox and Safari win, everyone else loses out”: Mostly wrong. Microsoft Internet Explorer did not lose out as much as I thought it would. Apple Safari did not gain as much as I thought it would. In fact, Google Chrome appears to have taken over Safari to position itself as one of the three most used browsers globally. I have never used Chrome, but I find this quite surprising.
• [2009-4] “Microsoft announces Windows 7, keeps selling Windows XP throughout 2009″: True. Back then, it was all speculation. In hindsight, it was a no-brainer.
• [2009-5] “Virtualisation comes to everyone’s desk”: It’s happening, but I feel that the statement itself was somewhat premature. At work, virtual desktop infrastructure is gradually becoming reality. At home, 64-bit operating systems and virtualisation-capable hardware (6-8 gigabytes of RAM, in particular) are finally within the reach of the average consumer.

Enough of 2009. Goodbye, old predictions. Hello, new predictions.

In 2010, the world will see the uprising of an anti-Google movement.

With more and more people asking, is Google the new V?, there is growing sentiment against everything Google. Both mainstream media and individuals will openly express concerns about the rate at which Google is veering off its core ad-selling business into organising (and ultimately wielding control over, as one might argue) the world’s information. Indeed, the implications will get many people and states genuinely worried, a view that is likely to develop in the near future into a widespread resistance much the same way open-source proponents feel about Microsoft. It may not be a highly organised movement, but concerned individuals will look for ways of doing everyday business without letting Google take charge. Google-free will be the new gluten-free. When the EU is done taming Microsoft and Intel, it will have to deal with Google one way or another.

In 2010, the non-existent Apple Tablet will remain a vaporware.

There is a truly wide range of views and rumours about the existence of the Apple Tablet. I personally second the opinion of CNET’s Molly Wood (as of 10 December 2009) that an e-book-capable 10-inch touchscreen device to be released in March/April 2010 with a US$1,000 price tag sounds pretty unreal. I see two reasons for this: 1) Apple cannot possibly take the plunge into the US$200-per-device e-reader market because it doesn’t do low-margin products; 2) No matter how popular and invincible the iPhone/iPod touch lineup appears to be, Apple still needs to spend all its energy into growing the pie for the iPhone/iPod touch platform. Anything half-baked like the rumoured Apple Tablet that is neither a handheld device nor a full-featured high-margin computer, will simply be a shot in the foot to Apple. What is more likely to happen, however, is Apple cutting a deal with major book publishers and magazine publishers that will make e-books and magazines more readily available on the iPhone/iPod touch. Perhaps 2010 will see the iTunes Store sell e-books and magazines alongside music, movies, TV shows, and audio books. Update (February 2010): Okay, this one is short-lived. Apple is indeed doing the “iPad” but has also announced books on the iTunes Store.

In 2010, ACTA will be ratified and become a household name.

If you haven’t heard of the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, a few minutes of fact-finding might do you some good. In short, the yet-to-be-signed ACTA is an international treaty that empowers or complements country-specific laws designed to crack down on Internet piracy such as the three-strikes laws in France and New Zealand and the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA) in the United States. The scope of ACTA is quite broad; one of the parts that make people most uncomfortable is a provision to “force Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to provide information about suspected copyright infringers without a warrant.” ACTA may also “empower security officials at airports and other international borders to conduct random ex officio searches of laptops, MP3 players, and cellular phones for illegally downloaded or ripped music and movies.” All ACTA negotiations are secret, but enough has been leaked. ACTA will be concluded in 2010 and will have a significant impact on the way people obtain, consume, and share copyrighted media and software. Even without ACTA, somebody spent two days in jail and almost faced up to three years in prison for taping three minutes of New Moon as part of a birthday celebration.

I’m thinking three is enough.

2009-12-23  »  JK